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Alibi
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Posted: Sat Oct 17th, 2009 09:35 pm |
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| We are packed and ready to head with to boat tommorrow to san carlos. Not sure if we should go now as they are predicting hurricane Rick will hit baja on Thur..in july we didnt here the news about the hurricane till we got there and it missed baja all together...trying to deciede what to do..
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Tecate Runner
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Posted: Sat Oct 17th, 2009 11:25 pm |
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Go ahead & go, nothing to worry about, ~~~ when, if, it hits Cabo it will be a catagory 1 ~~~ & not much left in it, ~~~ so go, ~~~
~~~ "THE GREAT HAPPY"
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repsilon
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Posted: Sun Oct 18th, 2009 10:32 am |
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| Bad Rick. Bad! Bad!!! Keep an eye on this one. The reports are changing rapidly, but towards it blowing through on Wednesday. I wouldn't want to be in Cabo or south of here. Let's keep our fingers crossed though.
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bartmanaz
Administrator
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Posted: Sun Oct 18th, 2009 02:09 pm |
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We're supposed to head down on Tuesday, but are watching Rick very closely. Mom says she is not interested in a repeat vacation upset by stormy weather. We spent Labor Day week there during Jimena with no power or water. Some lessons learned or reinforced from that experience:
Fuel: Make sure all tanks are topped off before the storm arrives. If you decide to leave or need to stay and cleanup, obtaining fuel can be a problem or in short supply.
Power: Backup power source is not a "nice to have". We now have a 2kw Yamaha generator that will always make the trip south. Won't run an AC but will keep reefer on and run a fan and lights.
Emergency lights: Have battery powered lighting and supply of candles. No point in being miserable in the dark.
Food, drinks and ice: Stock up, particularly water.
Sincerely hope that none of this becomes necessary. But Jimena was supposed to drift harmlessly out into the Pacific too. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. But remember that "hope" is not a viable plan.
Bart
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justme
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| Location: | San Carlos, Mexico |
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Posted: Sun Oct 18th, 2009 04:53 pm |
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Watch this one NOAA was wrong about the last 2 storms sooooo?....
it is cat. 5 180 knt. winds if it goes over Baja where they say it will not weaken much not very high mts. there and the water temps in the gulf are higher than the pacific who knows but like Bart said be ready. We still have several days and it could (I hope) change for the better.  Also we will have big waves whether it comes or not as it is pushing wave toward us now they typically take some time to get here
3 of 4 days Last edited on Sun Oct 18th, 2009 04:59 pm by justme
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JZ
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Posted: Sun Oct 18th, 2009 05:48 pm |
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Images will automatically update as the storm moves:
Last edited on Sun Oct 18th, 2009 05:52 pm by JZ
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fwxman
Member
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Posted: Sun Oct 18th, 2009 06:15 pm |
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Currently working as a NOAA Meteorologist and acknowledging that Tropical weather is not my thing, I decided to take a quick look at the predicted path of Hurricane Rick. To me it looks very reasonable with a high degee of confidence. The current medium range models have been consistently advertising a fairly strong cold front moving into the Great Basin early Tuesday. This will make it very difficult for Rick to take a more northerly track than is currently predicted by NHC. Although the bottom line is: like Doctors and Lawyers I get paid whether I'm right or wrong
Of course the "Naked Weather Man" will have the last word.
Hope Y'all Catch a lot of Fish
Mike
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Alibi
Member
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Posted: Sun Oct 18th, 2009 08:54 pm |
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We are at this point keeping a strong eye on Rick and planning on heading out on tues. this will put us in san carlos around thur. We are bringing down 300 pounds of rice and beans and clothing and shoes.
We plan on spending 5 days in san carlos before heading across to santa rosalia so hope fully that will give the sea time to calm down some.
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justme
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 12:22 am |
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Sorry FWXMan if I offended you (or noaa) I was not trying to but NOAA was flat out wrong on JIMENA I understand tropical stuff is not your bag but any incite you might have would be greatly appreciated by all of us here we are still in disrepair (SC in general)
So any info you can give would be great keep the info coming
Carl
OH and the Naked weatherman is always wrong thank god we don´t have to see him swim in a thong or anything in a thong 
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Tecate Runner
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 02:12 am |
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Come on cats, ~~~ you are staying home & running scared for nothing, ~~~ I'm telling you it's not going to hit SC, ~~~ & man is the fishing good rite now, ~~~
HAPPY ~~~
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Catch-22
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 03:00 am |
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Hola- From the Naked weather man...Oh Sh*t thats me ? There is a Cat. 5 hurricane South of Cabo, Senior " Rick ' ... It May or May not have an Impact on San Carlos ? I Guarantee This forecast to be 100% Accurate  You heard it here first
Thats all for Now
Steve
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Catch-22
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 03:06 am |
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After Further review..." The naked weather man" says No factor On SC.. Yes Maybe some rain but no big deal..My Standard Bet Applies if I'm wrong... NO WORRIES Trust me
Steve
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Tecate Runner
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 04:19 am |
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| ~~~ ~~~
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Alibi
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 05:46 am |
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| Only thing thats for sure is taxes and death...
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justme
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 04:46 pm |
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Tecate Runner
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 05:29 pm |
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Alibi, ~~~ good buddy, ~~~ the only thing thats for sure is death, ~~~ taxes are not for sure, ~~~ and if you get a tax bill you don't have to pay it, ~~~ But when death is sent your way you don't have a choice, ~~~ So the only thing you have to do is die, ~~~ there is nothing else in this world that you have to do, ~~~
THE GREAT HAPPY ~~~ ~~~
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fwxman
Member
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 06:57 pm |
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No worries Carl. I'll be the first to admit we struggle at times. However there are some major differences between Jimena and Rick. During the summer season light winds aloft provided little steering for Jimena. With Rick early winter like weather is moving across the Wrn U.S. and upper level steering winds will play a major role in the path Rick takes. Tomorrow (Tuesday) morning a northerly 110+ kt jet through CA, combined with 80kt west winds as far south a Yuma will be carving a low pressure storm system centered near Las Vegas. Early progress of this can already be seen in water vapor satellite loops. As such the current NHC forecast seems right on.
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=twc&area=hurrpac&type=wv&size=8
I'm not a work today so I have only limited access to our numerical models but it appears SC will be right on the northern edge of Ricks moisture field Tuesday. So I would not expect widespread and heavy precip in SC...altho the mtns to east may be a different story. Certain drying will occur Wednesday as the flow aloft becomes northerly.
Anyway it goes down I think Bart has some really good advise...he is a wise man!
On the other hand my money is still on the Naked Weather Man. Will he really swim the Harbor (naked of course) if he's wrong???
I will not!!
Good Luck
Mike
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phingv06
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 08:14 pm |
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The only thing that I have found out for sure is that Rain usually follows a long dry spell!
Phinney
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fwxman
Member
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 08:23 pm |
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Sorry, just to clarify the winds mentioned in my previous post are not at the surface and are at jet level, around 30,000 feet msl or 300mb for any pilots in the group.
mike
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justme
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Posted: Mon Oct 19th, 2009 08:58 pm |
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| Thanks Fwx like I said any info is a plus we are just watchin and waiting not that worried about SC but Cabo ??
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