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Ocean Camp San Carlos
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Posted: Sat Jun 13th, 2009 05:28 am |
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It's that time of year again. For those of us who make San Carlos our full-time home we already know the joys and not-so-joyous news about summer and fall months. Hurricane and Tropical Storm season is here and we have an early development that may affect us along the Sonora coast. Nothing major, but it should serve as a wake-up call to dust-off your family and neighborhood preparedness plan. You have one, right? (smile)
A low pressure area with thunderstorms and winds has developed southwest of the Baja Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center (in the USA) has named the storm Invest 91 and simply states,"This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development."
One way government agencies keep the public informed is by issuing predictions about storm development and movement is based on satellite technology and computer models. Storm forecasting is not an exact science. But it is a good science, an improving science. I can personally attest to the improvements in forecasting methods and models. I have been watching storm prediction models since the 1960s.
In past years Ocean Camp San Carlos has offered a condensed report of local (Guaymas), State (Sonora), National (Mexico) and US National Hurricane Center advisories. Some in our community have found it helpful.
For now, this is just a heads-up to boat owners and land dwellers as well. Computer models show this storm (Invest 91) passing near or over Guaymas in a few days. Most likely there will be rain and winds starting early next week.
In years past we have listed a series of web-based resources that can help people with good, timely information. Some people found these links "too complicated". A second problem developed among readers of community information boards because postings on the topic thread" were a "copy and paste weather map" which did not automatically update. Because of this visuals and maps on the boards were up to three days old, and posted right in the middle of a critical time for our community.
We are open to suggestions about how to distribute Tropical Weather Alert information: broadcast e-mail? A web-based information source? -- or maybe there really isn't any interest? Any consensus is OK with us. Your opinion is welcome. In the mean time, enjoy the possible precipitation early next week! Go ahead! Give us some rain please, to make the desert bloom.
Regards,
Mark Morelli
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ezmony
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| Joined: | Sun Feb 17th, 2008 |
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Posted: Sat Jun 13th, 2009 01:11 pm |
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| Go Mark--Great Idea!!! See my post other board.
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justme
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| Joined: | Tue Jun 13th, 2006 |
| Location: | San Carlos, Mexico |
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Posted: Sat Jun 13th, 2009 06:05 pm |
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Mark I agree about preparedness but noaa is not saying anything
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/vis-l.jpg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac
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Ocean Camp San Carlos
Member
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Posted: Sat Jun 13th, 2009 07:04 pm |
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You are correct. The tropical disturbance dissipated early this morning. The official National Hurricane Center (NHC) summery at 10 a.m. local time on June 13th is:
"TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."
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justme
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| Joined: | Tue Jun 13th, 2006 |
| Location: | San Carlos, Mexico |
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Posted: Sat Jun 13th, 2009 10:05 pm |
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Great Mark
I Would think That a weather post would be great for of us.
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Current time is 08:03 pm | |
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